baccaratinc| CBOT positions: Wheat production expectations in many countries have been lowered, why did the fund increase net short positions in wheat?

Chicago wheat futures prices traded on Thursday (May 23) close to the previous trading daybaccaratincThe highest level in 10 monthsbaccaratinc, as expectations of production cuts in Russia, the largest exporter, continue to boost markets.

Corn futures followed the strength of wheat prices, while soybean futures fell slightly.

As of press time, the main contract for Wv1 wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 0baccaratinc.14% to 6 per bushelbaccaratinc92 dollars, climbing Wednesday to its highest level since late July, at $7.1675 a bushel.

Corn main contract Cv1 fell 0.11% to $4.6050 a bushel, while soybean main contract Sv1 fell 0.20% to $12.4350 a bushel.

Tracking changes in CBOT positions

Estimates by overseas traders show that on Wednesday (May 22), commodity funds increased their CBOT speculative net short positions in the United States and wheat. Increase speculative net long positions in U.S. corn, U.S. soybeans, U.S. soybean meal and U.S. soybean oil. In the latest 30 trading days, commodity funds have increased speculative net long positions in U.S. soybean meal, U.S. wheat, U.S. corn, and U.S. soybeans, and increased speculative net short positions in U.S. soybean oil. See the chart for specific change data.

Russia's IKAR Agricultural Consulting Company lowered its forecast for Russia's wheat harvest and exports due to unusually hot spring weather and severe cold in the heart of Russia's granary. IKAR lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production to 83.5 million tons from 86 million tons, and lowered its forecast for the country's exports to 45 million tons from 47 million tons. Analysts reported that traders are closely watching the situation in Russia and expect some rainfall to ease the drought in the next 11 to 15 days. In Ukraine, crops have also suffered from drought and frost. A national weather forecaster said the frost had not caused serious damage to crops, but traders remained vigilant after consulting firm APK-Notify warned of production losses on Monday.

Agricultural consulting firm Agroconsult, which began conducting field visits nationwide this week, said drought in Brazil's two main corn-growing states is reducing the country's potential second-season corn production.

This week, wheat futures prices in Chicago surged to the largest premium for corn since 2022, spurring demand for cheaper alternatives that could help reduce global corn supplies.

For corn and soybeans, planting in the United States is progressing faster than expected, limiting price increases.