classicvideogames| Interpretation of May report: U.S. soybean data is in line with expectations and the impact of floods in Brazil continues to ferment

[introduction] the key data of 2023 and 24 in the May report are stable.ClassicvideogamesThe balance sheet of the new crop of Meidou in 2024x25 is in line with expectations. Brazil is the key to South America.ClassicvideogamesUSDA cut its production forecast by 1 million tons, and the two agencies also cut their production forecasts yesterday. At the same time, the long and short positions of US soybeans change greatly, and the performance of US bean futures is strong. Zhuang Chuang expects the US soybean futures price to continue to be strong.

Meidou balance sheet the old work is basically stable and the new work data are in line with expectations.

According to the USDA's May supply and demand report data, supply and demand and inventory data in the old balance sheet are stable month-on-month. As for new works, the key crushing volume, production, export volume and final inventory all increased significantly compared with the same period last year. Compared with previous market expectations, production estimates are 3 million bushels lower and final inventory 14 million bushels higher. Generally speaking, it is still in the early stage of sowing, and the later data have a large probability of change, so the impact on the US bean futures market is limited.

From the other data of Meidou, the positions in the US bean period announced by CFTC last night fluctuated greatly this week. This week, compared with last week, the holdings of single orders increased by 4%, the holdings of empty orders decreased by 10%, and positions increased by 2%.Classicvideogames.79%. In May, at the beginning of the sowing of US beans, the short orders with large positions in the early stage have a strong momentum of unlocking positions, which is expected to boost US bean futures to further upside. Last night, the market expected the United States to impose a tax on China's imports of waste cooking oil, as a large number of imports earlier this year led to a decline in demand for American soybean oil, while domestic crushing profits continued to decline, so the news also formed a positive support for US bean futures.

Brazilian production is lowered, Argentine production is estimated to be stable

The May report showed that Brazil's soybean production in 2023 in 24 was 1.Classicvideogames. 5.4 billion tons, down 1 million tons from the previous month, and 1.63 million tons at the end of the period. Argentina's production estimates and export estimates are stable. Brazilian production estimates have been cut, which is also a positive support for US soybean futures.

The impact of flooding in southern Brazil began to be gradually fed back on the data. StoneX, a US agency, cut its Brazilian production forecast by 3 million tons to 147.8 million tons. Brazilian agency AgResource cut 1.32 million tons to 144.59 million tons. Last Tuesday, Educardo Eduardo Leite, governor of Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul, warned that large amounts of cold air were expected to bring new storms. Temperatures are likely to drop sharply later in the week and heavy rain will return to parts of the state. Therefore, on the whole, US bean futures are expected to remain strong under the influence of capital and reduced production in Brazil.