bally'spokerroom|投资总监余璟钰细解宁泉资产的“种田式投资”，今年将一改过往偏防守的投资模式，更注重主动寻找机会

Source: Liuli Investment News

Yu Xianyu, Director of Ningquan Asset InvestmentBally'spokerroomIn an exchange a few days ago, I shared my latest views on the concept of value investment and investment opportunities this year.

As far as the future market is concerned, Yu Xianyu said that in the future, the market may continue to divide, the bad ones will gradually sink, and high-quality companies will support the market, so that the index can rise steadily year by year.

The traditional bull market and bear market model, in which all stocks soar and plummet at the same time, may not have a high probability, but there are always some companies that can bring profits to investors every year.

In this market, Ningquan will pay more attention to actively looking for opportunities as soon as it changes its defensive investment model in the past.

Within Ningquan assets, the main investment strategy is jokingly called "farming investment", which is different from the popular "hunting investment" in the past.

For the sown "field", Ningquan does not expect it to reap every year, but as long as a part of the investment can bring a return, it will be enough to meet the product performance and investor expectations.

Investment News (liulishidian) sorted out and selected the best content shared by Yu Xianyu:

Investment is a long chain process

You need to have an advantage in a certain link.

Q: Ningquan Asset, which has been established for more than 6 years, is a relatively young private equity company with the distinctive characteristics of founder Yang Dong. Is there anything special about being a value investor in China?

Yu Xianyu: I don't think there is any particularity.

In the A-share market, investment is a long chain process involving many links.

We have always believed that as long as we have an advantage in any part of the chain, we can achieve good results and even earn handsome returns.

Some people are very sensitive to market trends and may engage in short-term trading.

We believe that our ability circle lies in the cognition of the enterprise, the judgment of the industry and the pricing power, so we prefer a sound value investment style.

I don't think value investment is special, no matter which country in the world, the basic principles are roughly the same--

We need to find investment targets with a margin of safety, as well as enterprises with a broad moat.

Of course, each country's market has its own characteristics, so minor adjustments may be required in the application of these frameworks.

But as long as we can grasp these basic principles, the final result should be good.

In the A-share market, if value investment is controversial

It may be because some people do not consider the price when buying stocks, but just hold them for a long time and think that this is a value investment.

However, we emphasize that when buying, we should pay attention to the price and carefully evaluate its value.

As long as the price is carefully considered at the time of purchase, such investment behavior can be classified as value investment in a broad sense.

Therefore, I think in the domestic market, it is important to find your own ability.

In such a long investment chain, as long as you persist in ploughing in places where you have a little advantage over others for a long time, the final result should be good.

Farming and hunting

Look for good areas to "sow"

Q: in the annual review of Ningquan assets, the summary of last year is "defense and counterattack". What is your judgment on the market this year? What kind of strategies will be adopted this year?

Yu Xianyu: we think that the market probability of this year will be better than that of last year, and we can actively pursue positive returns.

I would like to share our views on the major changes in the market.

In the past, one of the major characteristics of the market was that people liked to participate in hype, high valuations of listed companies and low dividend rates, resulting in poor investment experience.

However, with the introduction of the National Nine articles, regulatory requirements to increase dividends, listed companies pay more and more attention to shareholder returns, coupled with years of market adjustment, stock valuations have been at a low level.

Taking into account the decline in risk-free returns, higher dividend returns are becoming more and more attractive to investors.

We believe that investors will gradually mature, their mentality will become more stable, and the proportion of long-term capital will be higher and higher, which will improve the stability of the market.

In the future, the property income of investors may mainly come from the operating creation of listed companies and shareholder returns.

The dividend rates of some enterprises are already very high

Other companies with low dividend rates are expected to improve significantly in the future. These are attractive investment opportunities.

Different types of assets correspond to the risk preferences of different investors, but relative to the risk-free rate of return, these assets are attractive to a certain extent.

For companies that are struggling, uncertain and unable to generate profits in the long run, the end result is that share prices are likely to continue to fall.

But this does not prevent the slow rise of the main index.

Because we have a large number of companies with sound operations, good cash flow and willing to improve shareholder returns as the backbone of the market.

Overall, we expect that the market will continue to differentiate in the future, and the source of income will mainly depend on the choice of industry and individual stocks.

In the process, bad companies will gradually sink, while high-quality companies will support the market, allowing the index to rise steadily year by year.

The traditional bull market and bear market model, in which all stocks soar at the same time, are not likely to occur. But every year there are always some companies that can bring profits to investors.

As long as you can choose the right company or layout correctly, it is possible to achieve positive benefits.

Our investment strategy will be more active.

In the past, we may have been defensive, but now we will be more active in looking for opportunities.

Our main investment strategy is internally jokingly called "farming investment".

That is, to find a good investment area to "sow"--

We don't expect to get a harvest every year, but as long as a part of the investment can bring a return, it will be enough to meet the product performance and investor expectations.

We will wait patiently for the unrewarded investment.

In contrast, hunting investment was popular in the past.

That is, the pursuit of themes, hot spots, new technologies, and the spread game as the main source of income.

Although this kind of investment has been very effective in the past, as the market matures, it becomes more and more difficult and risky.

Therefore, we will adopt a more robust 'farming investment' strategy, sow seeds patiently and wait slowly.

　　寻找的并不是冷门行业

　　而是性价比高的投资机会

　　问：您之前也提到过说，在个股中间会去选择一些成长空间比较高的，但是又偏冷门的行业。能不能跟我们透露一下，最近关注哪些冷门行业。

　　余璟钰：我们公司的一个特点，可能被认为是偏好冷门行业。

　　但实际上，不是因为我们喜欢找冷门，而是我们倾向于寻找便宜的投资机会，在冷门行业中往往更容易发现这样的标的。

　　我举几个例子。

　　其中之一，我们目前重点关注的光伏行业。

　　虽然在2021年初我们认为它比较贵，但我们明确看好光伏行业的长期发展空间和增速，但它那时的估值把长期业绩透支得比较多。

　　这几年看下来，光伏企业的利润是不断上台阶的，但它的股价一直在跌，其实就把估值消化了。

　　经过三年的调整，我们认为许多光伏企业的估值已重新变得合理。

　　鉴于行业的未来成长性依然良好，我们认为光伏行业在所有行业中仍然是增长较快的。

　　虽然光伏行业存在明显的周期性，并且目前正处于周期比较低迷的位置，大家对它的兴趣也不大，

　　但结合它的估值和这些企业本身来说，

　　只要行业继续增长，现在所谓的过剩产能，也是可以通过时间得到消化的。

　　在下一轮行业出清后，在行业普遍亏损时仍能保持盈利的企业，很有可能脱颖而出。

　　结合它们当前的估值，这些企业值得我们重点关注。

　　另一个我们关注的领域，是房地产。

　　尽管市场认为房地产存在泡沫，但经过下跌调整，我们认为许多问题已经得到了有效调整。

　　长期来看，我们预计住宅市场将保持约10万亿元的规模，

　　这一规模远大于许多我们熟悉的行业，它在经济中的重要性不言而喻。

　　如果考虑到房地产的周期性，

　　当前市场情绪已经偏向悲观的那个位置，只要市场恢复到常态，整个行业的回暖是指日可待的。

　　在这个过程中，包括房地产开发商和物业管理公司在内的相关股票，可能会有较好的修复，

　　从投资回报的角度来看，也具有不错的性价比。

　　总的来说，我们不是为了冷门而冷门，

　　我们寻找的并不是冷门行业，而是那些相对便宜、性价比高的投资机会。

　　这些机会往往出现在大多数人忽视或不愿意碰的地方。

　　相反，那些热门领域由于估值过高，通常不会有我们的身影。

　　业务模式简单、经营稳健

　　能够提供真实现金流回报的公司

　　问：今年最看好的行业或者是领域是哪些？

　　余璟钰：我们并没有特别偏好的单一行业，所以我们做了一个组合。

　　正如我刚才提到的‘种田式投资’，我们已经把一块一块的‘田’种好了，但具体哪一块能在今年收获，我们也无法预知。

　　因此，我们需要一个组合来分散风险。

　　毕竟，如果存在一个最看好的行业，为何不全仓投入呢？

　　投资中最确定的事情，就是没有任何事物是百分之百确定的。

　　虽然我们难以明确地说，最看好哪个行业，

　　但我们所种的‘田’里面，通常偏好的是那些业务模式简单、经营稳健、并且能够提供真实现金流回报的公司。

　　投资这类公司可以降低犯大错误的风险。

　　我们不太倾向于投资那些变化极快的新兴行业，尤其是那些名称中带有‘新’字的行业，

　　因为这些行业往往竞争激烈，优胜劣汰的速度很快。

　　我们更愿意在自己熟悉的领域中耐心等待。