cryptogamesnoinvestment| Rizhao Bonji soybean oil rose 170 yuan/ton US soybean oil stocks are expected to increase, corn futures prices are expected to increase momentum

News summary

US interest rate hike cycle may endcryptogamesnoinvestmentIt is expected that the exchange rate policy will adjust and the spot price in the soybean oil market will rise. In the short term, we need to be vigilant about the risk of fallback. International soybean supply and demand are balanced, and weather speculation during the new season's planting period affects futures prices. Domestic corn supply and demand remain stable, but the scale of imports is limited due to policies, and the boost to feed farming in the later period is limited.

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[Oil market rises] In the spot market, Rizhao Bangji first-grade soybean oilcryptogamesnoinvestmentThe price of the company climbed to 8090 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

At the macro level, the trading logic of commodity markets is expected to gradually shift as the U.S. interest rate hike cycle may come to an end. In the medium term, a soft landing of the U.S. economy and expectations of future interest rate cuts may drive a marginal improvement in market liquidity.

According to the May agricultural product supply and demand report released by the USDA, expectations for U.S. soybean production and inventory in the new season and expectations for world soybean ending inventories have all been raised.

The domestic soybean oil supply and demand situation is stable. It is expected that the medium-term supply and downstream demand of imported soybeans will remain neutral. The overall inventory in the second quarter will remain stable. Attention needs to be paid to the critical moment of the transition from destocking to replenishment.

The strategy warning shows that the soybean oil 09 contract may face the risk of falling back in the short term.

[Current situation of soybean meal market] In the spot market, Rizhao Cargill 43 protein soybean meal price was raised to 3410 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

In macro analysis, the Federal Reserve's expectation of first interest rate cuts in 2024 has been postponed from June to September, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been lowered from 75 basis points to 50 basis points.

In the international market, the balance sheet of the new United States is biased towards loose, and the overall supply of soybeans in South America is abundant. Affected by continuous rainfall, the planting progress of U.S. soybeans lags behind, and the market focus has shifted from South American soybean harvesting to new soybean planting in North America.

Domestic soybean meal supply and demand show that with the concentrated listing of soybeans in South America, the arrival of domestic imported soybeans in Hong Kong will peak in the second quarter, and soybean crush volume will remain at a high level, while soybean meal stocks are expected to face continued cumulative pressure.

Operational recommendations point out that soybean meal futures prices are expected to operate in a volatile manner.

[Corn Market Trends] The average national corn price is 2346 yuan/ton, the average new corn purchase price of key deep processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2291 yuan/ton, and the average new corn purchase price of key enterprises in Huanghuai, North China is 2336 yuan/ton. The relevant prices for Jinzhou Port and Shekou Port are 2,370 - 2,390 yuan/ton and 2440 yuan/ton respectively.

In terms of the external market, the USDA report in May predicted that global and U.S. corn production and ending inventories will be lowered, and the overall report will have a positive impact. The new season's corn planting season has begun to pay attention to the weather, and the US corn futures price has an upward momentum.

According to domestic market observation, the current market supply of grain sources is sufficient. As surplus grain decreases and the scale of imported corn is limited, corn futures prices may be supported. Downstream deep processing and feed companies will roll on an on-demand basis, and feed breeding is expected to improve seasonally in the later stage, forming certain support for the market.

The operating strategy believes that there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic corn market, the trend of futures prices is not obvious, and prices are expected to fluctuate mainly within the range.