asiansoccer| Non-ferrous stocks set off a wave of daily trading! Is it worth continuing optimism?―― Dow Investment Notes

Today's A-share marketAsiansoccerThe list of industry gains has been dominated by metals, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, small metals, etc., and non-ferrous stocks set off a rising limit.

Although Dago focused on the analysis of copper in non-ferrous metals yesterday. But in fact, the industry drivers of all metals, except gold, which is a special precious metal, are quite similar, because the fields in which they are applied downstream have greater overlap, so they are easy to show the characteristics of rising and falling at the same time.

Of course, there will be differences in the strength of the market because of the different supply and demand patterns of each subdivided industry. In Dago's view, the core driver of the current non-ferrous metals industry is the inventory cycle. This logic has been emphasized many times before.

At present, both China and the United States are in the early stage of active replenishment of industrial product inventory cycle. At this stage, both equity assets and commodity assets will perform better. Because at this stage, not only the demand for industrial products will rise, but also the price will rise. This kind of simultaneous increase in volume and price will bring about a substantial improvement in the performance of enterprises.

The recent rise in the prices of various non-ferrous metals, the record high of copper prices and the substantial improvement in foreign trade data are the external manifestation that the inventory cycle between China and the United States has entered the active replenishment stage. The drive of inventory cycle is a medium-and long-term logic.

From the perspective of inventory cycle, the first half of inventory rise, that is, the active replenishment stage, is optimistic. At present, no matter from the inventory level, or from the inventory rise duration, there is still some distance from the end of active replenishment.

Judging from the trend of the whole non-ferrous metal plate, it is an upward trend as a whole from the low on February 5 to the high on April 8; since April 8, it is the adjustment market for this rising trend, and the shape of the adjustment is a large interval shock.

From the situation of continuous adjustment of non-ferrous metal plate, the adjustment is relatively healthy. Because its overall performance is the shrinking adjustment after the increase in volume. As a rule of thumb, after this healthy adjustment is over, the probability of continuing to reach new highs is high.

However, there are several problems that we must pay attention to:

First, the time for adjustment is relatively short. The adjustment pattern since April 8 is a total of 27 trading days, which is significantly less than the 37 trading days of the previous upward trend. As a rule of thumb, the time for horizontal adjustment is generally no less than that of the previous upward trend.

Second, there is no obvious volume at the bottom of the concussion range. Although the volume has been released today, the signal is not very strong at the top of the concussion range before breaking through the concussion high. If you can not break through the high point of concussion range tomorrow, then you will face the pressure of continued concussion technically.

Dago is optimistic about the medium-and long-term market of non-ferrous metals, but the risk it now faces is the risk of the end of the range volatility since April 8.

If it is not over, the high point of the current concussion range obviously needs to be vigilant. Even if the adjustment is over, the intensity of the follow-up market after this insufficient adjustment is likely to be reduced. For Dago, a good entry point is near the lower edge of the interval concussion.

Of course, for the market of resource stocks represented by non-ferrous metals, Dago has been paying close attention to it since the beginning of March. On March 14, he analyzed it as one of the key sectors, and pointed out that the performance of resource stocks will not be poor in each round of liquidity easing in the past. (for details, see "another phenomenal consumption"Asiansoccer! Who will the wealth be poured on this time? ")

▲ Photo Source: screenshot from the Doda Investment notebook article on March 14

In addition, in the April 2 article "behind the sharp rise in resource stocks, there is a kind of cycle-Daoda Investment Notes", which focuses on the analysis of resource stocks represented by non-ferrous metals.

▲ Photo Source: screenshot from the April 2 Doda Investment Notebook

Today, under the leadership of the non-ferrous metals plate, the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the upper edge of the two-week range. Trading volume in the first 15 minutes after the opening of trading today was the highest since May 7. Generally speaking, this kind of breakthrough has strong technical significance.

This is obviously different from the lower edge of the shock when the contraction fell below the range last Wednesday, when Dago specifically emphasized the technical significance of the contraction, and emphasized that it was more of a contraction adjustment. You can compare today's volume breakthrough with the contraction that fell last Wednesday.

At present, the Shanghai Composite Index has stood on the upper edge of the interval concussion, as long as it can be confirmed to stand firm at the upper edge of the interval concussion, that is, around 3160 points, it will be highly probable that it will continue to rise. But if we go back below 3160, we will have to re-examine the effectiveness of today's volume breakthroughs. The more obvious pressure above is still near the 3220 point that Dago stressed yesterday.

In terms of index, another focus at present is the Shenzhen Composite Index. The current position of the Shenzhen Composite Index is critical, not only in the upper edge of the daily K-line in the past two months, but also in the interval of the 15-minute K-line in the past two weeks.

If the Shenzhen Composite Index breaks through the interval concussion of the 15-minute K chart upward, it means that there is a high probability of an upward breakthrough in the interval concussion of the Japanese K-line. If it forms an upward breakthrough trend, then it may be better than the Shanghai Composite Index which has already broken through in terms of the rising rate.

Here, Dago would like to emphasize that it is not a short time to rise or fall below a certain position, it can be considered to form an effective breakthrough or break through that position, otherwise there will not be so many "deception lines".

In terms of the plate, the hot real estate sector last week led the market down today, mainly because it rose too much in the previous few days, and the policy is good to land, and the follow-up stimulus may be reduced. The risk in this respect was specifically emphasized by Dago yesterday.

The logic of the late stage of the real estate sector lies in the transmission from policy to performance, but the transmission needs a process, which may not be realized in a short time, and it may be difficult to reproduce last week's intensive policy stimulus in the later stage. Therefore, the market of the real estate sector may not be worth paying too much attention to in a short time.

Today, the aquaculture sector is eye-catching. For this plate, Dago has said many times before, its core logic is the reversal of the pig cycle, which will not end in the short term, is a plate worthy of continuous attention. Of course, if the short-term increase is too large, the adjustment risk is also increasing, but this does not affect Dago's long-term bullish view.