arcadecrown| What is the next direction for two important reports on the implementation of grease?

SourceArcadecrownGrain information network

This week, domestic oil and fat got off to a good start when they returned from the holidays. The spot price of soybean oil rose by more than 100 yuan / ton a day, and the national average price once again broke through the 8000 yuan / ton mark, with the protagonist leading the rise from palm oil to rapeseed oil. However, the second round of rise did not last long. After only two days, the market began to turn downwards, with a deep decline on Friday. Some bears took advantage of the opportunity to leave the market at the end of the day, and palm oil futures closed down 2%.Arcadecrown.04%, soybean oil fell by about 2%, also hit a two-week low. So two important reports have been landed, how should the domestic oil go next week?

According to the spot market reference price of soybean oil, as of noon on May 10, the average spot price of first-class soybean oil from major domestic coastal manufacturers is about 7760 yuan / ton, of which about 7550 yuan / ton is in Dalian. About 7720 yuan / ton in Tianjin area, 7740 yuan / ton in Rizhao area, 7790 yuan / ton in Zhangjiagang area, 7780 yuan / ton in Dongguan area and 7840 yuan / ton in Fangchenggang area.

The new product of Meidou may reach a new high

In the early hours of this morning Beijing time, USDA released its monthly supply and demand. The report shows that in May, the US 2024 soybean production in 2025 is expected to be 4.45 billion bushels, while the market is expected to be 4.453 billion bushels. In May, U. S. soybean stocks at the end of 2024 season 2025 are expected to be 445 million bushels, compared with market expectations of 431 million bushels. In May, the yield of soybean per unit area of 2024Unix 2025 in the United States is expected to be 52 bushels / acre, while the market is expected to be 51.9 bushels / acre. The USDA kept Argentina's soybean production forecast for 2023max 2024 unchanged at 50 million tons, with market expectations of 49.61 million tons, and lowered Brazil's 2023 Universe soybean production forecast to 154 million tons from the previous 155 million tons, with market expectations of 152.63 million tons. in this report, the new crop of American beans and final stocks were basically in line with expectations, but South American supply was higher than expected and the report was neutral and short. The soybean harvest in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul has been affected by heavy rains, but the impact on the overall yield may be limited, with continued attention to the sowing weather of new American beans and the global supply of soybeans.

The future price of palm oil in the place of origin has fallen endlessly.

Palm oil fell 0.83% this week, the fifth consecutive week of decline, continuing the decline from an one-year high of 4443 ringgit hit in early April. With the South American soybean harvest on the market, the global oilseed crushing growth and an adequate supply of vegetable oil are putting palm oil under pressure. Dalian soybean oil and palm oil fell sharply on Friday, putting palm oil under pressure. Malaysia Palm Oil Authority MPOB: Malaysia's April palm oil stocks rose 1.85 per cent from a month earlier to 1744459 tonnes, according to a horse palm MPOB report released at noon yesterday. Malaysia Palm Oil Bureau MPOB: Malaysia imported 34762 tons of palm oil in April, an increase of 58.77% over the previous month. Malaysia Palm Oil Authority MPOB: Malaysia's palm oil exports in April were 1234208 tons, down 6.97% from the previous month. Malaysia Palm Oil Authority MPOB: Malaysia produced 1501941 tons of palm oil in April, an increase of 7.86 per cent from the previous month. From the point of view of the report, the report is neutral and pays attention to the increase of production in the producing area in the later stage.

The spot basis of oil and fat is falling endlessly.

The domestic oil base difference has fallen one after another this week, among which soybean oil has fallen deeply, and the turnover in some areas has now been negative. Up to now, the one-bean base difference in Northeast China is between 09-20: 100, and the transaction price is negotiable. this week, the first-grade soybean oil transaction in Liaoning is 05-10: 20, and the one-bean base difference among traders in North China is 09-150: 160, which is 30 lower than that before the festival, and the factory in Shandong Province has 09 + 160 million 240. The mainstream of East China fell by 50%, while that of South China fell by 20% to 09% of 220. In terms of palm oil, the base difference of palm oil has fallen sharply this week. Traders in North China have received 24 degrees of palm oil at 090.750 degrees. The factory has received less goods, the supply is tight, and the base difference is firm. However, compared with before the festival, there has also been a sharp decline. The base difference of East China is 09 degrees 300, and that of South China 24 degrees is mostly 09 degrees 380 400 degrees. In terms of rapeseed oil, rapeseed oil prices rose sharply this week, reaching an intraday high of 8750 points and a steady decline in the base margin. At present, the base difference of third-grade rapeseed oil in Sichuan-Chongqing region is 09-170, that in East China is 09-170 yuan / ton, and that in South China is 09-170 yuan / ton.

Prospect of oil and fat in the future

To sum up, the domestic oil market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile next week, focusing on geopolitical changes. Soybean oil closed sharply higher last night (CBOT), with the benchmark closing up about 4.2 per cent, the biggest one-day increase since July last year, as traders bet that the US tariff list on China could include waste cooking oil. The Biden government will raise tariffs on Chinese-made electric cars and other goods as early as next week, sources said Friday. It was rumored on Friday that China's waste cooking oil could be included in the tariffs.

On the domestic side, from the spot fundamentals, domestic oil stocks may be steadily increasing. The arrival of soybeans in Hong Kong has reached a peak, and the opening rate of factories has increased. At the same time, the import profit window of our country has opened, the number of palm oil buying ships has increased, and the price difference of soybean palm has gradually returned to rationality this week, which is conducive to palm oil trading. The supply of rapeseed oil is loose and continuous. with the arrival of the seasonal off-season of edible oil in China, there is a lack of consumer confidence. It is suggested that traders with low inventory can meet the appropriate rigid demand for inventory.