blackjackmobile| PTA market fluctuated upward: average prices in East China rose 0.52%, and fluctuations in oil prices affected development expectations

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The domestic PTA market fluctuated upward this week, and the average price rose slightly by 0%.Blackjackmobile.52%. Oil price fluctuations affect costs, downstream polyester plants reduce production, demand weakens, inventory is expected to increase, analysts expect PTA prices to fall.

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[market observationBlackjackmobile: the domestic PTA spot market shows a shock rising trend] this week, the domestic PTA spot market price experienced a shock upward trend. According to statistics, as of May 25, the average market price in East China reached 5946 yuan per ton, slightly higher than the price at the beginning of the week, with an increase of 0.52%. [device dynamics: domestic PTA devices are overhauled frequently] this week, domestic PTA production plants have experienced more frequent maintenance activities. The 2.5 million-ton PTA plant jointly owned by Dongying will undergo a maintenance period of about 40 days from May 6, while the 3.3 million-ton plant of Yisheng New Materials will enter a maintenance period of about 20 days on May 16. Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 million-ton plant was also suspended on May 23 and is expected to last for a month. In addition, Ineos's 1.25 million-ton PTA plant in Zhuhai has been suspended for four days since May 20 and has resumed operation. Overall, the current operating rate of the PTA industry remains at 75%, and no new device changes are expected next week. [oil price fluctuation: multiple factors affect international oil price] for the PTA market, the fluctuation of international oil price has a key impact on its price. At the beginning of the week, international oil prices received a certain boost due to the expected improvement in oil demand and the decline in US crude oil stocks, as well as geopolitical tensions. However, oil prices fell for several trading days as Fed minutes hinted at a possible delay in interest rate cuts and an unexpected increase in US oil stocks. To May 23, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures fell to 76.87 US dollars per barrel, while the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was 81.36 US dollars per barrel. The price of WTI crude oil fell to a three-month low. [PX Market: device failure affects supply] in the PX market, the 550000-ton PX plant in Malaysia was restarted earlier this week, after being suspended from operation since May 9 due to failure. At the same time, Saudi Arabia's 1.34 million-ton PX plant also faced unexpected shutdown and was in a state of low load due to unstable operation. Since the beginning of May, due to many unexpected stops of the device, the pressure on PX supply has been reduced. [demand dynamic: downstream polyester factory production reduction] Polyester factory, as the downstream user of PTA, recently began to concentrate on production reduction, showing a strong willingness to support the market. Even so, due to the arrival of the seasonal off-season, the willingness of the downstream market to buy is still limited. As summer approaches, the decline in polyester plant operating rate has become a trend, which leads to a decline in demand for PTA and an increase in market expectations for PTA inventory accumulation. The reduction in demand will exacerbate the oversupply of PTA, putting pressure on prices. [market Forecast: PTA prices are at risk of falling] analysts pointed out that the decline in crude oil prices weakened the cost support for PTA, the possibility of production cuts in downstream polyester plants increased, and demand is expected to decrease further. In addition, attention should also be paid to whether the number of unplanned overhauls of PTA devices has increased under the current environment of lower processing fees. Overall, the PTA market lacks bullish factors, and prices are relatively likely to fall.