bestonlinecasinonodepositbonus| Agricultural products 丨 Can the rebound momentum of cotton continue?

SourceBestonlinecasinonodepositbonusGuangzhou futures

Agricultural products? can the rebound momentum of cotton continue?

Since last ThursdayBestonlinecasinonodepositbonusCotton prices ended nearly a month of decline to achieve a rebound, the early cotton medium-and long-term bearish strategy smoothly stopped surplus, cotton prices warmed up for six consecutive trading days. So what is the reason for the recent price rebound? Has the current fundamental situation changed? Can the follow-up rebound in cotton prices continue? Answers will be given one by one below.

(1) reasons for the rebound

In our view, there are two main reasons for the recent rebound in cotton prices. First, the recent warming of the macro environment at home and abroad, the improvement of data in April and the release of favorable real estate policies and other factors led to a rebound in commodity prices. Cotton production enterprises increased enthusiasm for sales, there is a willingness to raise the price.

Second, the domestic market of cotton is closely related to the international market, and the changes in the outer disk affect the trend of the inner market. At present, the United States and India are in the cotton sowing stage, and their continuous wet weather may have an impact on cotton planting and output, and weather factors contribute to the rise in cotton prices. At the same time, American cotton prices continued to fall sharply over a long period of time, the market appeared bullish sentiment, some investors buy bargain, American cotton in the 75 cents / pound or find support, futures price adjustment repair.

(2) Analysis of supply and demand

So, can the positive factors that contribute to the price rebound improve the current supply and demand pattern at home and abroad?

From the perspective of the international market, according to the data released by USDA, the current planting rate of American cotton is 33%, which is higher than the average of the past five years, and the sowing is smooth; at the same time, Brazilian cotton and Australian cotton are gradually listed, and the supply is adequate. Short-term weather factors are easy to digest and will not have much impact on the output of the main producing countries. In the case of increased supply, consumption has not improved, and demand from the world's major textile countries is still weak, suppressing cotton prices. According to the supply and demand balance table estimated by USDA in May, global production and consumption will increase in 2024, but the increase in output is expected to be higher than consumption, and the overall data is neutral and empty.

From the perspective of the domestic market, although the domestic gin plant was basically seasonally shut down, due to China's large imports of American cotton in April (the import volume increased by 309% over the same period last year.Bestonlinecasinonodepositbonus.28%), the sufficient supply side puts more pressure on upstream enterprises. Despite the improvement of the macro environment, the downstream demand side is still weak, textile enterprises feedback that the current lack of orders, price reduction is common, the enthusiasm of enterprises to take orders is not high. At the same time, small and medium-sized textile enterprises generally carry out inventory production, while the speed of cotton yarn delivery is slow, so that the demand for cotton purchased by textile enterprises is not high, and the current price of cotton has fallen sharply for two consecutive days.

(3) prospects for the future

Overall, both the international market and the domestic market are in the current situation of adequate supply and weak demand, and cotton prices have been weak for a long time. American cotton rose 3% after the last trading day.BestonlinecasinonodepositbonusAfter .93%, the price of the night market fell again on the latest trading day, and the upward momentum of cotton price was insufficient. The domestic and international market similar supply and demand pattern may also show that cotton prices have not yet stabilized, in the absence of a clear bullish signal, futures prices or shock operation. However, there are large variables in subsequent exports and consumption, and its impact needs to be confirmed gradually with the passage of time.