tigergamingpoker| I was confused! The leading non-ferrous ETF (159876) fell 3.3%, suddenly being poured a bucket of cold water! Where will the future market go?

In the early morning of this (May 23) morning, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its latest meeting, saying that it is too early to cut interest rates and may raise interest rates further if necessary.

Or disturbed by the Federal Reserve eagle, the commodity rally came to an abrupt end! Base metals fell across the board, copper and nickel fell sharply, and LME copper fell 4 percent yesterday.Tigergamingpoker.26 per cent, the biggest one-day drop so far this year, while LME nickel also fell 4.48 per cent yesterday.

A-share non-ferrous metals were also affected, taking all the leading non-ferrous metals industry in the 60 non-ferrous metals index stocks, except Bowei alloy, all closed green, of which cobalt, copper industry stocks led the decline.

Non-ferrous leading ETF (159876), which closely tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index, opened low and fluctuated at low levels throughout the day. By the close, market prices fell 3.3%, losing the 20-day moving average.

It is worth noting that after exploring a high of 1.205 yuan on May 20, non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) fell for three consecutive days. However, during the recent decline, there continued to be a fall in funds. Data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange show that non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) has attracted a total of 4.88 million yuan in nearly 5 days.

People often say, "Don't look at what a man says, but what he does." With the non-ferrous metal plate falling in recent days, northbound funds are greatly increasing their positions. Data show that northbound funds yesterday increased their positions by 371 million yuan and absorbed 2.12 billion yuan weekly, all of which were among the 31 TOP5 in case-level industries, with a monthly income of 5.903 billion yuan, ranking third in the industry, or reflecting that "smart money" continues to be optimistic about the future performance of the non-ferrous metals sector.

Standing at the crossroads, investors will inevitably be confused-the non-ferrous metals sector has risen too high? You want a callback?

1, from the market trend, take the colored leader ETF (159876) as an example, the high point reached on May 20 is 1.205 yuan, which is only the high point of nearly a year, which is still a long way from the high point since listing (the closing price of 1.721 yuan on September 13, 2021).

2. From the valuation point of view, the price-to-book ratio of the CSI non-ferrous metals index tracked by non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) is 2.35 times, which is in the low position of 34.15% since listing, and there is still room to rise from the median 2.63.

3. From the point of view of long-term allocation value, the logic of the rise of non-ferrous metals may continue to be effective.Tigergamingpoker:

From the perspective of ① supply and demand, the supply side is affected by the lack of global mine capital expenditure, the decline of grade and other factors, as well as the demand side in the context of the rise of emerging economies and new energy, the current round of non-ferrous metal prices represented by copper may be regarded as the start of its large cycle.

② the pattern of high inflation in the United States has not changed, the world is committed to de-dollarization, central banks have increased their holdings of gold, the stack of geo-conflicts in the Middle East continues, and the safe haven value of precious metals remains high.

Looking to the future, Citic Construction Investment said that at present, domestic and foreign demand repair, promote the growth of non-ferrous goods consumption, the global green energy revolution continues, domestic new quality productivity is ready, is expected to start a new cycle of commodity demand.

According to public data, according to the caliber of Shenwan's third-tier industry, copper, aluminum and gold are the top three major industries in the CSI non-ferrous metals index tracked by ETF (159876), accounting for 24.1%, 16.7% and 14.7% respectively, accounting for more than 50%. It is expected to benefit from the rally in gold, as well as from the commodity rally cycle.

Sources of data and charts: Wind, Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, Warburg Fund, etc.

Note: the rise and fall of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index in the past five complete years is: 2019, 24.48%; 2020, 35.84%; 2021, 35.89%; 2022,-19.22%; 2023,-10.43%.

Risk tip: non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) passively track the CSI non-ferrous metals index (930708.CSI), the index base date is 2013.12.31, the release date is 2015.7.13, the composition of index stocks is timely adjusted according to the rules of the index, and its historical performance does not predict the future performance of the index. In this article, the index stocks are only shown, and the individual stocks are not described as any form of investment advice, nor do they represent the position information and trading trends of any fund under the manager. The risk level of the fund assessed by the fund manager is R3-medium risk, suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors, the appropriate matching opinions should be based on the sales organization. Any information that appears in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only and the investor is responsible for any discretionary investment behavior. In addition, any point of view, analysis and forecast in this article does not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, nor is it liable for direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the contents of this article. Fund investment is risky, the past performance of the fund does not represent its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by fund managers does not constitute a guarantee of fund performance, so fund investment should be cautious.