namethattune2022| Centralized maintenance of upstream enterprises: methanol port inventories are reduced, imports are restricted, and risks of olefin equipment increase

News summary

Upstream starts fell to historical lows in the same periodnamethattune2022, spring maintenance startsnamethattune2022From May to June, the plant was stopped, imports were limited, port stocks were greatly reduced, methanol was supported in the short term, and olefin equipment was at greater risk.

Newsletter text

The domestic upstream operating rate fell to a historical low for the same period, with the operating ratio this week being only 65namethattune2022.14%, a decrease from last week. Due to the spring centralized maintenance period, it is expected that many sets of equipment will be suspended from May to June.

Since May, the volume of imports to Hong Kong has not reached expectations, and overseas markets have also faced overhauling multiple sets of equipment. Against this background, imports are expected to be relatively limited from May to June.

In addition, the previous arbitrage window from the mainland to ports has been closed, resulting in a significant reduction in port inventories and tight supply. In terms of the downstream olefin market, olefin companies in coastal areas such as Shenghong Sierbang continue to reduce production, while Xingxing, Chengzhi Phase I and Yangmei are in a state of maintenance. Despite this, some mainland companies are still making external procurement.

In traditional downstream markets, operating rates remain at a high level. Overall, due to frequent upstream maintenance activities, insufficient imports, and low port inventories, the methanol market is expected to gain support in the short and medium term.

However, downstream olefin units face greater risks and uncertainties in the long run.