kastkingsharky3| NVIDIA AI demand-driven growth: Ultramicro computer Q1 is US$3.85 billion, Q2 is expected to US$5.1 - 5.5 billion

News summary

Nvidia's share price is supported by big model business and optimistic Capex budget for the four North American cloudskastkingsharky3Demand for AI training cards has surged. The server business serves as a priori indicator of performance, and NVIDIA products such as Hopper, Ampere and Blackwell architectures promote the technology cycle. The performance of suppliers such as Ultramicro Computer exceeded expectations, and Nvidia's delivery cycle shortened. It is recommended to pay attention to related manufacturers such as domestic computing power chains and NV chains, and at the same time be alert to technical, AI ethics and policy risks.

Newsletter text

The driving force behind the surge in Nvidia's share price [Big model business activities bring upward momentum to Nvidia's share price]

From October 10, 2022 to June 20, 2023, the first cycle of increase in Nvidia's share price was driven by changes in ChatGPT's business model; while the second wave of increase from January 2, 2024 to April 9, 2024 was driven by market expectations for an explosion in the AI terminal market and the business prospects of multimodal technologies such as Sora.

North America's four major cloud service giants are optimistic about AI prospects [Microsoft, Google, Amazon and META remain optimistic about Capex's budget]

These companies 'investment expectations in the field of artificial intelligence have a positive impact on Nvidia's performance growth.

Server sales data indicates the direction of Nvidia's performance [Demand for data center products is growing, and server sales have become a performance barometer]

The hot sales of Nvidia's data center products provide support for the stock price.

Product iteration is the key to Nvidia's technology cycle [Hopper and Ampere architectures open the consumer market, Blackwell architecture supports the second round of technology cycle]

These technological advances provide potential for the development of the AI market while demonstrating new investment opportunities for investors.

Supply chain improves, Nvidia's production capacity grows [Delivery cycles are shortened, and increased production capacity is expected to support performance growth]

The increase in server rental prices in 2023 reflects market demand. The increase in production capacity of TSMC and Sk Hynix indicates an improvement in the supply of Nvidia products.

Investors should pay attention to relevant industrial chains [Manufacturers related to the computing power chain benefit, including Hengwei Technology, Haiguang Information, etc.]

At the same time, companies in the NV chain, computing power leasing, optical modules, PCB and storage sectors will also be positively affected by Nvidia's performance growth.

Risk warning [Investors need to pay attention to multiple potential risks]

Risk factors such as technological upgrading, AI ethical policies, and Sino-US trade relations need to be paid attention to.